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Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Who’s leading the polls? National polling average. Harris <1. Aug. Sept. Oct. Election Day. 40% 50% Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the... State. Cycle. An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology. Donald Trump. Republican Party. 46.8 47.7 48.5. T he race for the White House is in its last weeks. Early voting has begun in most states, including key battlegrounds like Arizona and Georgia. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. See here for more details and an archived version of the previous average. See the previously published polling average for this race before President Joe Biden suspended his campaign. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win. There are 50 states in the US but because most of them nearly always vote for the same party, in... Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections. [1][2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner. [3] . Poll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on ... August 28, 2024. Key things to know about U.S. election polling in 2024. By Scott Keeter and Courtney Kennedy. (J Studios/Getty Images) Confidence in U.S. public opinion polling was shaken by errors in 2016 and 2020. In both years’ general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.

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The trump administration’s zero tolerance immigration enforcement policy Donald trump shooting today