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Popular voteWin probability. We forecast the popular vote only for candidates polling at 5 percent or higher nationally, polling at 10 percent or higher in at least one state or who are on the ballot in almost every state. Since Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal, only Harris and Trump meet these criteria, so we are effectively forecasting ... 11/01/2024 Trump Narrows Gap Between Swing State and Popular Vote By Jonathan Draeger 11/01/2024 Four Northern Swing Counties That Could Decide the Presidency By Adeline Von Drehle 10/31/2024 New Swing State Polling Data By Adeline Von Drehle When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. AtlasIntel. 49.4%. Trump. 47.9%. Harris. +2 Trump. + More Polls. The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic ... Harris vs. Trump Including Third Parties and Independents. A separate average calculation for the subset of polls that have a question that names one or more notable candidates in addition to Harris and Trump. The inclusion of these names can significantly influence the polling average. Trump is up by 20 points among men in Pennsylvania, 57% to 37%, while Harris has an 18% hold on women over Trump, 57% to 39%. That’s compared to Trump’s 16-point advantage among men nationally ... Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. The final New York Times/Siena College poll published Sunday found Pennsylvania knotted at 48 percent of the vote for Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump. But beneath that tie were trends to buoy both sides. Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump. Updated Nov. 3, 2024. Leer en español. See the final Times/Siena polls of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin ...

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