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538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society. Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ... And all the polls we publish can be found in one place: our polling tracker, which we’ve just revamped in preparation for the 2022 midterm elections. A few other websites aggregate polls, but in ... Polls were historically accurate in 2021-22. Includes polls of special elections and runoffs. Excludes polls from pollsters that are banned by FiveThirtyEight, New Hampshire primary polls taken ... Pollsters have made lots of changes since then and the polling industry “had one of its most successful election cycles in US history” in the 2022 midterm elections, according to analysts at 538. State. Cycle. An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology. Download the data. Download. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Notice any bugs or missing polls? This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head. To view averages including 3rd party candidates, select the checkbox near the ... FiveThirtyEight’s historical generic ballot polling average on Election Day vs. the actual national popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives, 1996 to 2020 National House vote margin Year

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