The Harris campaign provided a statement on Saturday night from Geoff Duncan, a Republican who was the lieutenant governor of Georgia during the 2020 election, denouncing Mr. Trump. “Tonight, we ... Ga. Trump +1: 14 <1. Ariz. Trump +3: 19 +1. ... Biden dropped out” shows the change from the Biden vs. Trump head-to-head polling average on July 21 to the current Harris vs. Trump average. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. Latest news and updates on the 2024 election. Follow the Trump-Vance and Harris-Walz campaigns in North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia ahead of the presidential election next week. 48% Harris Harris. 49% Trump Trump. About this data. Note: Individual poll results are shown as circles for each candidate. Polls with greater weight in the average have larger circles. Some state ... Popular voteWin probability. We forecast the popular vote only for candidates polling at 5 percent or higher nationally, polling at 10 percent or higher in at least one state or who are on the ballot in almost every state. Since Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal, only Harris and Trump meet these criteria, so we are effectively forecasting ... 45.0%. Harris. +6 Trump. + More Polls. The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average ... Republican Party. 46.8 47.7 48.5. T he race for the White House is in its last weeks. Early voting has begun in most states, including key battlegrounds like Arizona and Georgia. The two major ...
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