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This isn’t a popularity contest™. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed ... Republican Party. 46.8 47.7 48.5. T he race for the White House is in its last weeks. Early voting has begun in most states, including key battlegrounds like Arizona and Georgia. The two major ... Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ... MSNBC’s prediction map is redder than in 2016 which suggests a stronger Trump victory. But 538’s chances of Trump winning this election are much lower than in 2016 (28.6% vs 10%) which suggests a weaker Trump victory or a loss. Iowa Caucus - Democrats Feb 3, 2020. Here are my predictions for Iowa tonight: Sanders wins with 28% on the first ballot. I actually think Buttigieg may pull off second.. 22%. Joe Biden in third is the story of the night.. 20%. Warren fourth 17%. everyone else under 15. 1 comment. Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state) 9 out of 100: Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates <1 out of 100: Harris wins at least one state Biden didn't win in 2020: 40 out of 100: Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020: 84 out of 100 Across the entire US there are a total of 538 electoral college votes up for grabs and the winner will be the candidate that gets 270 or more. A poll published by the University of New Hampshire shows why, giving Kamala Harris an 11-point lead. Maine also grants an electoral-college vote to the winner of each of its two Congressional ... Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024.

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