Across the key battlegrounds collectively or nationwide, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald J. Trump leads by more than a single percentage point. The 2024 presidential election will be historic no matter who wins. It all comes after an unprecedented campaign for both parties. Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump ... Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Trump allies say the former president is singularly focused on winning the election outright and has not personally engaged in the war-gaming scenarios he might look to if Harris wins. Mr. Trump announced in July his choice of Senator JD Vance of Ohio, and Ms. Harris announced in August that she had chosen Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning. Our prediction model shows the chances Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have of winning the contest to be America's next president. The two major-party candidates, Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice-president, and Donald Trump, the Republican former president, are criss-crossing the country, scrambling to raise funds and ...
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