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Poll: Harris narrowly leads among likely voters in 2024 election, but Trump carries ‘change’ mantle What the latest numbers say and what to look for as the election comes to a close. In 2016, Selzer’s final poll showed Trump up 7 in Iowa when other polls showed a closer contest. Trump won the state by more than 9 points. Trump won the state by more than 9 points. Latest poll averages. Decision Desk HQ and The Hill are tracking polls leading up to all presidential, Senate, and House primaries and the general election on November 5th, 2024. Read our methodology here. Below are the latest polls, but you can also navigate by state and topic using the drop-downs above or jump to all polls. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head. To view averages including 3rd party candidates, select the checkbox near the ... Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ... This isn’t a popularity contest™. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed ... Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 2 out of 100. Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. 38 out of 100. Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. 50 out of 100. Harris wins the national popular vote. 67 out of 100. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Morning Consult is conducting thousands of surveys every day, asking U.S. voters if they plan to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump in November, as well as how they view these candidates and other top political figures.

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