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The 2022 midterms saw generally accurate polling, despite a wave of partisan polls predicting a broad Republican victory. In fact, FiveThirtyEight found that “polls were more accurate in 2022 than in any cycle since at least 1998, with almost no bias toward either party.” To judge the accuracy of presidential polls, the charts in this article show averages that combine many polls into one estimate for each election. Polls were historically accurate in 2021-22. Weighted-average error of polls in the final 21 days* before presidential primary and presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial general... How accurate are political polls? And how much should you read into figures ahead of the 2024 election? As recent years have proved, polling is often, sometimes heavily, incorrect. (Image... An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls,... Who’s ahead in the national polls? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls. Despite complaints both before and after the election about Republican-leaning polling firms “flooding the zone,” our overall forecasts and polling averages were both fairly accurate and ... A new analysis from Pew Research Center examines the accuracy of polling on more than 20 topics, ranging from Americans’ employment and vaccination status to whether they’ve served in the military or experienced financial hardship.

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