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Narrow victories in a handful of swing states are likely to determine whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the US presidential election on November 5. This tracker uses the latest national and state-level polls to estimate the range of likely outcomes in each state. The presidential election is 2 days away. Here’s our guide to the run-up to Election Day. Tracking the Polls. The state of the race, according to the latest polling data. Swing State Ratings ... Topline. The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively tied, with the latest set of polls showing Harris leading the three so-called ... How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States? Harris leads Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin ... This map tracks a Harris-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. No polling is available yet in some less competitive states. In those cases, the Consensus Forecast rating is used. The map automatically updates three times daily. States where the margin is 4% or less are shown as Toss-up. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. When looking strictly at the polls, Trump now has the edge in two states and the other five most closely watched states are toss-ups. At the end of August, Vice President Harris had leads large ... Vice President Kamala Harris has held her leads nationally and in Michigan, but her leads in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have shrunk in the last week. Trump still leads in Arizona, Georgia ... Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ...

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