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Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are spending an awful lot of time in Pennsylvania. Why? Because Pennsylvania voters hold one set of keys to the White House. Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. Now — just 18 days away ... This chart shows how the polling margin in Pennsylvania has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump. This chart shows how the polling margin has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump. The final New York Times/Siena College poll published Sunday found Pennsylvania knotted at 48 percent of the vote for Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump. But beneath that tie were trends to buoy both sides. An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which... Overall, voters without a four-year degree look likely to back Trump at a similar — or even higher — rate than in 2020: On average, Trump leads Harris 55 percent to 41 percent among this group ... Who’s ahead in Pennsylvania? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. UPDATED Nov. 3, 2024, at 8:36 AM. Who Is Favored To Win Pennsylvania's 19 Electoral Votes? 538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes. Trump wins 53...

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