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Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election. 2024 Presidential Election Polls. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. See here for more details and an archived version of the previous average. See the previously published polling average for this race before President Joe Biden suspended his ... We analyzed virtually all polls conducted in the final 21 days 1 before every presidential, U.S. Senate, U.S. House and gubernatorial general election, and every presidential primary, since... It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election. What the polls say about the 2024 election. 538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss the latest polling data showing an extremely close presidential race. 538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society. Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls.

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