This chart shows how the polling margin has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump. Former President Donald Trump has enjoyed a comfortable lead over Vice President Kamala Harris across betting markets, but over the past few days, Harris is gaining ground. According to Real Clear ... Prediction markets allow individuals to bet on the outcome of events, and more users are currently betting that Donald Trump is more likely to win than Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris on Polymarket, which estimates he has a 64% chance of winning the election, while the chances of a Harris win are about 36% on the site. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Tilt (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+). Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast. On Polymarket, Kamala Harris' odds of winning the U.S. presidential election have increased from 33% on Oct. 30 to nearly 39%. Donald Trump's have dropped 61%. The increase in Harris' odds might ... Two national polls released Sunday show an ultra-close race with Vice President Kamala Harris just barely in the lead, while a third poll shows her tied with former President Donald Trump. Prediction markets, which allow users to bet real money on election results — more than $100 million on one site alone — are much more bullish on Mr. Trump. On Friday, Marist College released their highly-anticipated final polls across the Midwestern states, finding Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by 3 points...
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