Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald J. Trump in three crucial battleground states, according to new surveys by The New York Times and Siena College, the latest indication... When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024... The two major-party candidates, Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice-president, and Donald Trump, the Republican former president, are criss-crossing the country, scrambling to raise funds and... Among likely voters nationwide, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds 48% support Harris and 47% Trump, a margin that suggests no clear leader in the race. About 2% say they plan to vote for ... More White voters prefer Trump to Harris (55% to 41%), while Black voters overwhelmingly back Harris (79% vs. 14%). Among all registered Hispanic voters, roughly half (54%) support Harris, while a smaller share (38%) support Trump. And Asian voters back Harris over Trump by two-to-one (62% vs. 30%). Education The polls underestimated Donald J. Trump in 2016. They underestimated him again in 2020. So can we trust the polls this time? I’m asked this question a lot, and if I only get one quick reply, my ... Trump could win if the polls are underestimating him even slightly. In 2016 and 2020, he outperformed the polls in the swing states, and he could do it again. Here’s one possibility. The poll, conducted by SSRS, finds 47% of likely voters support Vice President Kamala Harris and an equal 47% support former President Donald Trump. An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
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