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In a collection of surveys and polls, Trump held a 1.0% advantage in Georgia, according to Five Thirty Eight, down slightly from the 1.3% advantage he held at the beginning of October. 48% Harris Harris. 49% Trump Trump. About this data. Note: Individual poll results are shown as circles for each candidate. Polls with greater weight in the average have larger circles. Some state ... If Trump wins one of the Rust Belt states (most likely Pennsylvania, according to polls), and also carries Georgia and North Carolina, then he would likely break 270. Georgia › Trump +1. 40%. 50%. 48%. 49%. ... If the polls miss in Trump’s favor Trump could win if the polls are underestimating him even slightly. In 2016 and 2020, he outperformed the polls ... 45.0%. Harris. +6 Trump. + More Polls. The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average ... Popular voteWin probability. We forecast the popular vote only for candidates polling at 5 percent or higher nationally, polling at 10 percent or higher in at least one state or who are on the ballot in almost every state. Since Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal, only Harris and Trump meet these criteria, so we are effectively forecasting ... Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. Neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump has established a clear advantage in the presidential race in Georgia and North Carolina, a new CNN/SSRS poll finds. Donald J. Trump has improved his standing in Pennsylvania even as late-deciding voters appear to be breaking for Kamala Harris. The New York Times/Siena College Poll Oct. 24 to Nov. 2 If the 2024 ...

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