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State. Cycle. An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology. A federal by-election was held in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. Louis-Philippe Sauvé of the Bloc Québécois flipped the seat from the Liberal Party. September 16, 2024: A federal by-election was held in Elmwood—Transcona. Leila Dance held the seat for the NDP. Relay Strategies: September 16, 2024 [19] 42.5: 22.5: 17.8: 7.8: 3.9: 5.5 — ±2 pp ... The 45th Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament.The date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous ... Welcome to 338Canada! The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L ... Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. See here for more details and an archived version of the previous average. See the previously published polling average for this race before President Joe Biden suspended his ... MB/SK. Alberta. British Columbia. Important note: Some polls are not be listed below because their data is behind a paywall (such as most Nanos weekly updates), but they are included in the projections. Polling Firm. Rating. Date (middle) Sample. LPC. The seat projection model uses a proportional swing method based on the difference between the results of the last election and current polls. For example, if a party managed 20 per cent in Quebec in the 2021 federal election and is now polling at 40 per cent in Quebec, the party's 2021 election results in each riding in Quebec are doubled. Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ... Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Notice any bugs or missing polls?

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