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The latest poll finds Harris and Trump roughly even with independent likely voters – Harris at 45% to Trump at 41% - with a gender gap that is centered among independents. Independent women ... The polls have been fairly steady despite an intense and eventful campaign. Mr Trump, the first convicted felon to seek the White House, has faced two deplorable attempts on his life: at a rally ... This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head. To view averages including 3rd party candidates, select the checkbox near the ... Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 7 out of 100. Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 2 out of 100. Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. 38 out of 100. Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. 50 out of 100. Harris wins the national popular vote. On the eve of the 2024 presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris has the support of 51 percent of likely voters to former President Donald Trump’s 47 percent – a lead just outside ... Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ... State. Cycle. An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology. The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National ... Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. See here for more details and an archived version of the previous average. See the previously published polling average for this race before President Joe Biden suspended his ...

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