Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 7 out of 100. Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 2 out of 100. Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. 38 out of 100. Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. 50 out of 100. Harris wins the national popular vote. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Republican Party. 46.8 47.7 48.5. T he race for the White House is in its last weeks. Early voting has begun in most states, including key battlegrounds like Arizona and Georgia. The two major ... Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ... In 2024, the most recent Emerson poll has Trump leading Biden by 2 points, while the most recent HarrisX poll has him up by 4 (IBD/TIPP have not released any polls this cycle). It seems strange to think that pollsters that were so close in 2020 would try to pick up missing Trump voters in 2024- HarrisX even had a small bias in Trump's favour. The final national NBC News poll of the 2024 presidential campaign finds a neck and neck contest defined by clashing forces that have aided both Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump ... Who is leading national polls? Harris has had a small lead over Trump in the national polling averages since she entered the race at the end of July and she remains ahead - as shown in the chart ... Trump lost 2020 by around 45,000 votes divided between 3 states (WI, AZ, and GA). Against an unpopular Democrat like Harris, he could pull it off, especially if he became more 2016-like. His image has recovered in polling since 1/6, as I've stated in other posts, and Biden is declining in popularity in polling currently.
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