Republican Party. 46.8 47.7 48.5. T he race for the White House is in its last weeks. Early voting has begun in most states, including key battlegrounds like Arizona and Georgia. The two major ... 60%. 70%. Nov. 3. 40% Trump Trump. 57% Harris Harris. About this data. Note: Individual poll results are shown as circles for each candidate. Polls with greater weight in the average have larger ... This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head. To view averages including 3rd party candidates, select the checkbox near the ... This isn’t a popularity contest™. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed ... Trump wins Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, flipping all three states from 2020. Harris carries the Rust Belt. Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, matching Biden’s 2020 outcome in those states. Use our "what-if" tool to pick a winner in each state and see how it would change 538's 2024 presidential election forecast. Former President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will be in Pennsylvania, a state both candidates see as critical. Mr. Trump will keep up his tradition of holding his last rally ... Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ... On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. See here for more details and an archived version of the previous average. See the previously published polling average for this race before President Joe Biden suspended his campaign. This map tracks a Harris-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. No polling is available yet in some less competitive states. In those cases, the Consensus Forecast rating is used. The map automatically updates three times daily. States where the margin is 4% or less are shown as Toss-up.
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