At the moment, the latest data puts Harris on 48% and Trump on 47.2% - one of the smallest leads in the swing states. When the margins are that fine, it’s impossible to know who is really ahead ... Who is leading national polls? Harris has had a small lead over Trump in the national polling averages since she entered the race at the end of July and she remains ahead - as shown in the chart ... Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day. We forecast the popular vote only for candidates polling at 5 percent or higher nationally, polling at 10 percent or higher in at least one state or who are on the ballot in almost every state. Since Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal, only Harris and Trump meet these criteria, so we ... Former President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will be in Pennsylvania, a state both candidates see as critical. Mr. Trump will keep up his tradition of holding his last rally ... Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ... See the latest election polls and polling averages for Pennsylvania. ... Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times. ... See where Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are campaigning. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. AtlasIntel. 49.4%. Trump. 47.9%. Harris. +2 Trump. + More Polls. The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic ... Republican Party. 46.8 47.7 48.5. T he race for the White House is in its last weeks. Early voting has begun in most states, including key battlegrounds like Arizona and Georgia. The two major ...
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