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Current as of Map Timestamp. This is an electoral map projection derived from the 2024 Election Forecast from 538. It is current as of the map timestamp. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump ... Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head. To view averages including 3rd party candidates, select the checkbox near the ... Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ... Polls were historically accurate in 2021-22. Includes polls of special elections and runoffs. Excludes polls from pollsters that are banned by FiveThirtyEight, New Hampshire primary polls taken ... 538’s G. Elliott Morris shares the latest polling data on how young men are voting. ... With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the ... 538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss the latest polling data showing an extremely close presidential race. October 15, 2024 How Hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect the 2024 election This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast. It will always contain the most recent data from the model. 1. The model is the direct descendant of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election forecast 2 and the methodology is largely the same, other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced for 2020. And all the polls we publish can be found in one place: our polling tracker, which we’ve just revamped in preparation for the 2022 midterm elections. A few other websites aggregate polls, but in ...

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