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Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. Now — just 18 days away ... Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ... We simplified our model and made it more responsive to polling. How 538's Harris-Trump forecast differs from its Biden-Trump forecast. On Thursday, Aug. 22, Vice President Kamala Harris officially ... A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win. ... We take you to a Trump and Harris rally to feel the excitement on both sides. But in the meantime, we’ll be tracking Trump’s favorability numbers and Harris’s approval ratings to get a better sense of how Americans think of them — especially if either, or both, are ... Trump wins Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, flipping all three states from 2020. Harris carries the Rust Belt. Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, matching Biden’s 2020 outcome in those states. Use our "what-if" tool to pick a winner in each state and see how it would change 538's 2024 presidential election forecast. This is an electoral map projection derived from the 2024 Election Forecast from 538.It is current as of the map timestamp. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of By 270toWin Staff. The 538 probabilistic forecast model relaunched Friday, updated to reflect a Harris vs. Trump general election. "538 is excited to unveil our forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Our forecast starts out with a slight lead for Harris, reflecting her current edge in polls but uncertainty ... State. Cycle. An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology.

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