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A new Minnesota Poll has Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 48.4 percent to 43.3 percent as voting begins in the state. This chart shows how the polling margin in Minnesota has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump. Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight lead over former President Donald Trump among likely Minnesota voters, according to a new poll released six weeks before Election Day. This chart shows how the polling margin has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump. Who’s ahead in Minnesota? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning. No Republican has won Minnesota for president since 1972, but Trump narrowly lost in 2016 by 1.5 points. President Biden won in 2020 by seven points. Polling averages for Harris are somewhere in ... Who’s ahead in the Minnesota ? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. The latest averaging of national polls by FiveThirtyEight shows Harris with a slim 48%-46.6% advantage over Trump, with little change in the neck-and-neck nature of this race over several weeks.

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