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Our forecast still gives the vice-president a 74% chance of winning the popular vote. However, the reason that Mr Trump has pulled ahead is his advantage in the electoral college. Harris or Trump? Who is winning in the polls and favored by the odds? ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 47.9% over Trump 47% - by 0.7%, a slimmer margin yet again ... Our prediction model shows the chances Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have of winning the contest to be America's next president. Either way, you have two days to place your bets. Bettors push Trump's probability of winning higher than in previous elections. Trump's probability of winning is now just a few percentage points ... At the moment, the polls suggest that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a couple of percentage points of each other in all of the swing states - and when the race is that close, it’s ... Nate Silver's "Silver Bulletin" has a virtual coinflip: Trump with a 50.4% chance of winning the Electoral College, Harris with a 49.2% chance, and a 0.4% chance of a 269-269 result that would throw the election to the House of Representatives. FiveThirtyEight's model has a similar result, with Trump winning 53% of their simulations and Harris 47%. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and... Trump could win if the polls are underestimating him even slightly. In 2016 and 2020, he outperformed the polls in the swing states, and he could do it again. Here’s one possibility. We track polls from across the country and synthesise them to measure the state of the race. Since she took over the Democratic nomination from Joe Biden, Ms Harris’s standing has risen steadily ...

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