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Republican Party. 46.8 47.7 48.5. T he race for the White House is in its last weeks. Early voting has begun in most states, including key battlegrounds like Arizona and Georgia. The two major ... Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. What’s changed: We’re a week out from Election Day and our average still shows an incredibly tight race. Vice President Kamala Harris has held her leads nationally and in Michigan, but her ... Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state) 9 out of 100: Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates <1 out of 100: Harris wins at least one state Biden didn't win in 2020: 40 out of 100: Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020: 84 out of 100 Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ... This isn’t a popularity contest™. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed ... This article is a collection of statewide opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United States presidential election.The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. Line chart showing voting intention in national polls between Harris and Trump since the Trump-Biden debate on June 27. Kamala Harris 48.8 Donald Trump 47.4. Source: FT research, FiveThirtyEight • Latest poll Oct 29. In US Presidential elections, national polls are merely indicators, because the overall winner is decided using the electoral ... State. Cycle. An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology.

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