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Here are the numbers with these potential scenarios that would get each candidate over the top: 1. Harris and the Blue Wall. Harris holds the Blue Wall (and Omaha) Harris: 270. Trump: 268. 270 to win. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ... Republican Party. 46.8 47.7 48.5. T he race for the White House is in its last weeks. Early voting has begun in most states, including key battlegrounds like Arizona and Georgia. The two major ... Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 7 out of 100. Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 2 out of 100. Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. 38 out of 100. Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. 50 out of 100. Harris wins the national popular vote. Trump wins Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, flipping all three states from 2020. Harris carries the Rust Belt. Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, matching Biden’s 2020 outcome in those states. Use our "what-if" tool to pick a winner in each state and see how it would change 538's 2024 presidential election forecast. A poll published by the University of New Hampshire shows why, giving Kamala Harris an 11-point lead. Maine also grants an electoral-college vote to the winner of each of its two Congressional ... And that is why Ms. Harris — who has raised over $1 billion and has heavily outspent Mr. Trump, and won virtually every news cycle for two months and by all accounts dominated the debate — is ... Explore possible outcomes in the battleground states to see how Harris or Trump could reach 270 electoral votes and the White House. Ratings from the Cook Political Report. An earlier version of ...

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