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Trump wins Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, flipping all three states from 2020. Harris carries the Rust Belt. Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, matching Biden’s 2020 outcome in those states. Use our "what-if" tool to pick a winner in each state and see how it would change 538's 2024 presidential election forecast. We simplified our model and made it more responsive to polling. How 538's Harris-Trump forecast differs from its Biden-Trump forecast. On Thursday, Aug. 22, Vice President Kamala Harris officially ... The Harris vs. Trump average includes polls conducted before Biden announced he was dropping out of the race and polls including Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst The ... A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win. ... We take you to a Trump and Harris rally to feel the excitement on both sides. Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ... But in the meantime, we’ll be tracking Trump’s favorability numbers and Harris’s approval ratings to get a better sense of how Americans think of them — especially if either, or both, are ... For Mr. Trump, holding Ms. Harris below the 39 percent of the vote in Waukesha that Joseph R. Biden Jr. won in 2020 will be essential. “If Waukesha County can get to 40 for Harris, numerically ... Currently, our forecast gives Trump a XXX out of 100 chance of winning the election, and gives Harris a XXX out of 100 chance. Still, the closeness of the race bears repeating what has become something of a mantra here at 538 recently: A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close. Republican Party. 46.8 47.7 48.5. T he race for the White House is in its last weeks. Early voting has begun in most states, including key battlegrounds like Arizona and Georgia. The two major ...

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