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Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Trump could win if the polls are underestimating him even slightly. In 2016 and 2020, he outperformed the polls in the swing states, and he could do it again. Here’s one possibility. According to our forecast model, as of November 4th, Ms Harris wins in 92% of our simulations when she takes the Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes; Mr Trump wins in 88%. 2024 Presidential Election Polls. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head. On Friday, Marist College released their highly-anticipated final polls across the Midwestern states, finding Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by 3 points in... We track polls from across the country and synthesise them to measure the state of the race. Since she took over the Democratic nomination from Joe Biden, Ms Harris’s standing has risen steadily. Who’s ahead in all? An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency Where are polls closing next? Live 2024 election results and maps by state. POLITICO’s real-time coverage of 2024 races for President, Senate, House and Governor. As Election Day nears, Ms. Whitmer has focused on her home state, where she won re-election two years ago by 11 percentage points, but where polls now show a virtual tie between Ms. Harris and ...

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