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Betting on U.S. elections. Wagering on the U.S. presidential election is nothing new. Bets on presidential candidates were common during the turn of the 20th century. 2028 • 2024 • 2020 • 2016. This page provides an overview of prediction markets relating to the 2024 presidential election. The PredictIt charts show the state of each market on PredictIt with data updated every 60 seconds, and the RealClearPolitics charts show prediction market averages updated daily. The following charts are available ... Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 2 out of 100. Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. 38 out of 100. Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. 50 out of 100. Harris wins the national popular vote. 67 out of 100. The director of the longest-running election betting market in modern US politics used to work in a relatively sleepy field, presiding over what he called a “connoisseurs' market”, where bets ... Still, the betting probabilities and polling seem at odds between the past two elections. In recent days, Trump's probability of winning the 2024 election has approached Biden's in 2020. The 2024 US Presidential Election odds have cut Donald Trump's lead from a -225 favorite yesterday to -200. Kamala Harris is now at +162 from +175 just 24 hours ago. The change could be due to Harris's lead in key swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin where the Democratic candidate jumped to a 1.1 and 0.7 point lead respectively. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. See here for more details and an archived version of the previous average. Sort by date. RealClearPolitics provides the latest betting odds for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Tilt (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+). Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast. Current. 2020 Electoral Votes. Change From 2020 to 2024.

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