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Both Trump and Harris have states they can probably count on to get at least 200 electoral votes, but they need to get to 270 to win. The two major-party candidates, Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice-president, and Donald Trump, the Republican former president, are criss-crossing the country, scrambling to raise funds and... There is a less than 1 out of 100 chance of no Electoral College winner. In this scenario, Harris wins 49 out of 100 times. In this scenario, Trump wins 51 out of 100 times. How this works: We... Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and... Narrow victories in a handful of swing states are likely to determine whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the US presidential election on November 5. This tracker uses the latest... On this page, you can see how the probability of a Harris or Trump election win and the median electoral votes for each have evolved over time. There is also a results distribution graphic for the most recent day. This displays the frequency of each outcome across all 25,000 simulations. This chart shows how the polling margin in Pennsylvania has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump. The gender gap is enormous. The latest national NBC News poll shows Trump winning men by 18 percentage points and Harris carrying women by 16 points — a combined 34-point gender gap, up from 30 ... Our prediction model shows the chances Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have of winning the contest to be America's next president.

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