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Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. See here for more details and an archived version of the previous average. Sort by date. Based on The Post’s polling average, Trump’s most likely path to 270 is winning Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, assuming he wins all the other non-swing states he won in 2020. Pa. Even . 16. N.C. <1 . 6. Nev. <1 . 16. Ga. +1 . 11. Ariz. +3 . 270. If the polls miss in Trump’s favor Trump could win if the polls are underestimating him even slightly. In 2016 and 2020, he ... Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. Winning Pennsylvania would leave just 74 electoral votes on the table, from which Trump would only need 32 more, while Harris would need to capture 44 to win. If Trump secured Pennsylvania, he ... This chart shows how the polling margin in Pennsylvania has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump. May 30 Trump convicted ... In 2020, the Keystone State state flipped again. Biden won it by about 80,000 votes, according to Pennsylvania voting results data. Although Biden’s win was larger than Trump’s, it was not an ... Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Race Is Tied In 2 New Polls Of Crucial Battleground. ... which also found both candidates have a more than 85% chance of winning the election if they secure ... Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s in the 2016 election, and Biden, who is originally from Scranton, Pennsylvania, reversed the trend in 2020, with the state to ...

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