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An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency 538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes. Trump wins 53 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls. Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Related. When polls close on Election Day in these 7 battleground states. By Meg Kinnard, Associated Press. WATCH: Harris speaks at church in Detroit while Trump calls Democrats ‘demonic’ at ... Vice President Kamala Harris has held her leads nationally and in Michigan, but her leads in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have shrunk in the last week. Trump still leads in Arizona, Georgia... The gender gap is enormous. The latest national NBC News poll shows Trump winning men by 18 percentage points and Harris carrying women by 16 points — a combined 34-point gender gap, up from 30 ... Key Takeaways. Harris leads Trump in our final national survey: Harris leads Trump by 2 percentage points among likely voters, 49% to 47%, down from a 3-point lead in our previous update. Taking... We track polls from across the country and synthesise them to measure the state of the race. Since she took over the Democratic nomination from Joe Biden, Ms Harris’s standing has risen steadily.

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