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On Polymarket, Kamala Harris' odds of winning the U.S. presidential election have increased from 33% on Oct. 30 to nearly 39%. Donald Trump's have dropped 61%. The increase in Harris' odds might ... Meanwhile, Polymarket shows Trump has a 54% chance of winning the presidential election with Harris trailing behind at just a 45.3% chance. PredictIt’s markets are a little closer. For the ... Kalshi shows Trump with a 54% chance vs. 46% for Harris, PredictIt shows a coinflip, while Polymarket gives Trump a 56% chance of victory. There are reasons to take the prediction markets with a grain of salt, including the disproportionately large wagers that tilt the odds one way or another, Axios' Brady Dale and Nathan Bomey report. Go deeper: Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. The crypto-based Polymarket gives Trump a 66% chance of prevailing over Harris, the first time his odds have risen over 65% since July 21, the day Biden dropped his reelection bid. Competitor ... As of Friday at 5 p.m. EDT, Trump's probability of winning ticked down to 64% on Polymarket, a crypto trading platform. The odds are similar to those betting markets gave him when President Joe ... The split on the crypto-based Polymarket, which is not legal in the U.S. but is arguably the most famous of the sites, narrowed to 60.3% odds for Trump compared to 39.6% for Harris, down from the ... The blockchain-based election betting site Polymarket priced in a 60% chance of a Trump victory, breaking the 60% threshold for the first time since late July, days after President Joe Biden bowed ... This is an electoral map based on the Polymarket prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election. It will be updated every four hours. Unless there is an exact tie, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning ...

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