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538’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodological transparency of each polling organization’s polls. We define accuracy as the average adjusted... Our analysis shows that in reality, you’d have to double that margin of error to plus or minus 6% to get 95% accuracy. That means that the outcome is less certain; the candidate is likely to get anywhere from 48% to 60% of the vote. To judge the accuracy of presidential polls, the charts in this article show averages that combine many polls into one estimate for each election. Despite these controversies, polls remain a highly accurate predictor of election outcomes, and FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich found that polls correctly called 78% of races... How accurate are polls? The answer to this question depends on what you want polls to do. Polls are used for all kinds of purposes in addition to showing who’s ahead and who’s behind in a campaign. Fair or not, however, the accuracy of election polling is usually judged by how closely the polls matched the outcome of the election. As the U.S. general election draws closer, a topic of heated discussion is the latest polling data – which came under scrutiny in 2016 after so many polls failed to accurately predict the election of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States. Where did pollsters go wrong in 2016 and what are they doing differently in 2020? Polls were historically accurate in 2021-22. Weighted-average error of polls in the final 21 days* before presidential primary and presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial general... But elections are just one of many topics that polls are used to understand. A new analysis from Pew Research Center examines the accuracy of polling on more than 20 topics, ranging from Americans’ employment and vaccination status to whether they’ve served in the military or experienced financial hardship. Significant elections, such as the 1948 U.S. Presidential Election, where most polls inaccurately predicted a victory for Thomas Dewey over Harry Truman, have put the accuracy of polls to the test, prompting methodological refinements.

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