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Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump. Updated Nov. 4, 2024. Leer en español ... “Since Biden dropped out” shows the change from the Biden vs. Trump head-to-head polling average on July 21 to ... The polls could underestimate Harris’s or Trump’s support. ... Take a look at how polling errors in the past three presidential elections would affect our current 2024 polling averages. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head. To view averages including 3rd party candidates, select the checkbox near the candidate names. For legacy polling, visit the Biden vs. Trump page. In 2016, Selzer’s final poll showed Trump up 7 in Iowa when other polls showed a closer contest. Trump won the state by more than 9 points. Trump won the state by more than 9 points. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. See here for more details and an archived version of the previous average. See the previously published polling average for this race before President Joe Biden suspended his ... A poll published by the University of New Hampshire shows why, giving Kamala Harris an 11-point lead. Maine also grants an electoral-college vote to the winner of each of its two Congressional ... Voters in the US go to the polls on 5 November to elect their next president. The election was initially a rematch of 2020 but it was upended in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign ... As well as an average of the polls, you can also see historic polling data for Mr Biden and Mr Trump, more recent polling since Ms Harris entered the contest, and key dates in the race and ... Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state) 9 out of 100: Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates <1 out of 100: Harris wins at least one state Biden didn't win in 2020: 40 out of 100: Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020: 84 out of 100

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