Republican Party. 46.8 47.7 48.5. T he race for the White House is in its last weeks. Early voting has begun in most states, including key battlegrounds like Arizona and Georgia. The two major ... Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. See here for more details and an archived version of the previous average. See the previously published polling average for this race before President Joe Biden suspended his ... Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris has a marginal lead over Republican former President Donald Trump among U.S. registered voters nationally, Reuters/Ipsos polls show, and the race remains ... When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. Harris vs. Trump polls. Tie polling average based on 339 polls. Nov 4, 2024. Trump. 48.3%. Harris. 48.3%. Estimate. 95% of polls fall in this range. In September, likely voters split 48% for Harris and 47% for Trump, nearly identical to the new poll, and a poll just after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race over the summer and threw ... Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ... The latest polling from The New York Times and Siena College found that in Wisconsin, Ms. Harris had an advantage of 17 percentage points over Mr. Trump among female voters, a gap consistent with ...
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