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Former President Donald Trump once again appears to be in the driver’s seat in this presidential election. When looking strictly at the polls, Trump now has the edge in two states and the other ... Donald J. Trump has improved his standing in Pennsylvania even as late-deciding voters appear to be breaking for Kamala Harris. The New York Times/Siena College Poll Oct. 24 to Nov. 2 If the 2024 ... Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ... The presidential election is 2 days away. Here’s our guide to the run-up to Election Day. Tracking the Polls. The state of the race, according to the latest polling data. Swing State Ratings ... Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state) 9 out of 100: Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates <1 out of 100: Harris wins at least one state Biden didn't win in 2020: 40 out of 100: Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020: 84 out of 100 State. Cycle. An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology. Republican Party. 46.8 47.7 48.5. T he race for the White House is in its last weeks. Early voting has begun in most states, including key battlegrounds like Arizona and Georgia. The two major ... Line chart showing voting intention in national polls between Harris and Trump since the Trump-Biden debate on June 27. Kamala Harris 48.8 Donald Trump 47.4. Source: FT research, FiveThirtyEight • Latest poll Oct 29. In US Presidential elections, national polls are merely indicators, because the overall winner is decided using the electoral ... Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024.

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