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Republican Party. 46.8 47.7 48.5. T he race for the White House is in its last weeks. Early voting has begun in most states, including key battlegrounds like Arizona and Georgia. The two major ... The possible election of the first female president, a broad backlash against Trump, the fall of Roe v. Wade and more have played big parts in stretching the gap in Harris' favor among women. This isn’t a popularity contest™. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed ... Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. See here for more details and an archived version of the previous average. See the previously published polling average for this race before President Joe Biden suspended his ... View the latest 2024 Biden Trump Presidential forecast predictions and create your own 2024 election prediction map. Sponsored content Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results. A poll published by the University of New Hampshire shows why, giving Kamala Harris an 11-point lead. Maine also grants an electoral-college vote to the winner of each of its two Congressional ... State. Cycle. An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology. This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast. It will always contain the most recent data from the model. 1 The model is the direct descendant of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election forecast 2 and the methodology is largely the same , other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced for 2020. Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ...

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