Harris carries the Rust Belt. Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, matching Biden’s 2020 outcome in those states. Use our "what-if" tool to pick a winner in each state and see how it... At launch, our forecast shows President Joe Biden locked in a practically tied race with former President Donald Trump, both in the Electoral College and national popular vote. A fair bit of polling in the afternoon, some of it pretty middling for Kamala Harris, but also mostly from mediocre and/or Republican-leaning polling firms that tend to herd toward numbers like Trump +1 or Trump +2 and don’t impact the forecast much. Former President Donald Trump ended his presidency more unpopular than any of the last 12 presidents at the end of their first terms and he is still unpopular post-presidency according to... On Thursday, Aug. 22, Vice President Kamala Harris officially accepted the Democratic Party's nomination to be its 2024 candidate for president. The following day, we turned on our election forecast for the race between Harris and former President Donald Trump. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (75%+), Dark (95%+). Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast. Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. Now — just 18 days away ... An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which... The 538 probabilistic forecast model relaunched Friday, updated to reflect a Harris vs. Trump general election. "538 is excited to unveil our forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
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