And North Carolina in particular has had a record early turnout: The state’s Board of Elections announced that nearly 4.5 million voters cast ballots during early in-person voting. With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the relevancy of early voting data. ... Polls are more reliable in swing states, especially in ... This isn’t a popularity contest™. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed ... Specifically, as of April 25 at 9 a.m. Eastern, our national polling average shows 40.9 percent of likely voters would support Biden if the election were held today, while 41.6 percent would ... Election Day. 40%. 50%. Nov. 3. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our ... State. Cycle. An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology. The biggest swing in a state that flipped parties in an election with an incumbent since 2000 was Indiana’s 11-point swing from 2008, when Obama won it by 1 point, to 2012 when Mitt Romney won ... Polls are more reliable in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt. Want to know who will win the 2024 presidential election? Flip a coin. The race is very likely to come down to seven key swing ... Thirty-four percent voted for Trump, and 5 percent voted for independents. But if turnout among the group drops by 10 percentage points and third-party voting increases by 4 points, Trump would flip Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, giving him an Electoral College victory with 272 electoral votes. Voters aged 18-29. Vote margin. D +29. Vote share.
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