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This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head. To view averages including 3rd party candidates, select the checkbox near the ... Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. See here for more details and an archived version of the previous average. See the previously published polling average for this race before President Joe Biden suspended his ... The presidential election isn’t decided by the national popular vote, which is why we rely heavily on state polls in our polling averages. However, national polls are still useful for ... Republican Party. 46.8 47.7 48.5. T he race for the White House is in its last weeks. Early voting has begun in most states, including key battlegrounds like Arizona and Georgia. The two major ... On the eve of the 2024 presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris has the support of 51 percent of likely voters to former President Donald Trump’s 47 percent – a lead just outside ... The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations. Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 8 out of 100. Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 2 out of 100. Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. 41 out of 100. 48% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. With one day left in the 2024 campaign, the polls show one of the closest presidential elections in the history of American ... If the 2024 presidential election were held ... Times/Siena College polls of 1,010 voters in Nevada, 1,305 voters in Wisconsin, 1,010 voters in North Carolina, 1,004 voters in Georgia, 1,527 ... State. Cycle. An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology.

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