In 2016, Trump was declared the winner shortly before 03:00 EST (08:00 GMT) a few hours after polls closed. In 2012, when Barack Obama secured a second term, his victory was projected before ... Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and... Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump each need at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Follow here for 2024 presidential election updates, results, analysis ... 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning. The big question now is - will America get its first woman president or a second Donald Trump term? As election day approaches, we'll be keeping track of the polls and seeing what effect the ... Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. More White voters prefer Trump to Harris (55% to 41%), while Black voters overwhelmingly back Harris (79% vs. 14%). Among all registered Hispanic voters, roughly half (54%) support Harris, while a smaller share (38%) support Trump. And Asian voters back Harris over Trump by two-to-one (62% vs. 30%). Education This chart shows how the polling margin has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump. In 2016, Trump cracked the “blue wall,” flipping all three Rust Belt states red for the first time in decades. All it would take for this to happen again this year is a normal-sized polling ...
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