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In 2016 and 2020, surveys in the presidential election overstated Democrats’ standing. Even though Biden won in 2020, he had been leading by more in many swing state polls than what the final ... The 2024 election is looking about as close as its two most recent predecessors. Just as in 2016, the 2020 electoral college was decided by less than one percentage point in the decisive state ... Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. Both Trump and Harris have states they can probably count on to get at least 200 electoral votes, but they need to get to 270 to win. Let’s zoom in on seven key states in the middle where the ... The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively tied, with the latest set of polls showing Harris leading the three so-called “blue ... The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively tied, with the final pre-election New York Times survey showing Harris ahead in four of ... Mr. Trump won the state in 2016, but it flipped in 2020 to President Biden, who won by a narrow 0.3 percentage point margin. Immigration has been a top issue for voters in the state. The state is ... This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head. To view averages including 3rd party candidates, select the checkbox near the ... Track swing states where the 2024 election will be won and lost. Close. President. Senate. House. Governors. ... Where are polls closing next? Polls closing Nov. 5, 2024, 6 p.m. EST. IN KY.

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